Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
This report analyzes the magnitude and trend of migration flows between Mexico and the United States; the experiences and intentions of Mexican immigrants repatriated by U.S. immigration authorities; U.S. immigration enforcement patterns; conditions in Mexico and the U.S. that could affect immigration; and characteristics of Mexican-born immigrants in the U.S.
The report draws on numerous data sources from both Mexico and the U.S. including the Mexican decennial censuses (Censos de Población y Vivienda) of 1990, 2000 and 2010 and the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) monthly data for 1994 to 2012.
The report finds that, after four decades that brought 12 million current immigrants—most of whom came illegally—the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped and may have reversed. The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and broader economic conditions in Mexico.
Passel, J., Cohn, D. and Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2012). Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less. Pew Hispanic Center: Washignton, D.C.