The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation: The Rising Influence of Children of Immigrants

The 2012 U.S. presidential election was a turning point in the perception of the power of the Latino vote, according to author Patrick Oakford, who noted that Latinos were credited with helping President Barack Obama's reelection. In his paper "The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation: The Rising Influence of Children of Immigrants," Oakford analyzes the Latino electorate to gauge its impact on future elections. Oakford breaks down the Latino electorate into three groups: first-generation immigrants (foreign-born), second-generation immigrants (children of foreign-born immigrants), and third-generation immigrants (children of U.S.-born parents). He finds that immigrants and their children are a growing percentage of the Latino electorate increasing from 49 percent in 1996 to 55 percent in 2012. Second-generation immigrants also are a growing share of the Latino electorate: between the last and the next elections, around 3.3 million Latino citizens will turn 18. Crucially, according to the findings, immigrants and their children are more likely to vote than third-generation immigrants. Consequently, as their share of the electorate increases, Latino voter turn-out is likely to increase. Oakford suggests that this trend has important implications for both the President and the House of Representatives, providing some incentive to deal with policy matters that affect Latinos such as immigration reform. 

Download the report or view it online.

Get more from the Center for American Progress.