Projections Show Increasing Future Immigration Grows the U.S. Competitive Advantage

Justin Gest et al
Date of Publication: 
April, 2021
Source Organization: 

The competition for first place in the global economy is heating up. According to researchers at George Mason University in a study commissioned by, immigration policy can be used as a tool to maintain the position of the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. Without the boost provided by immigration, the study projects that the U.S. economy will fall behind China’s by 2030 and will shrink to 75 percent of China’s economy by 2050. The authors argue that if the U.S. doubled its immigration levels now, GDP could reach $47 trillion by 2050, $10 trillion more than if current immigration trends are maintained and $18 trillion more than if immigration were stopped.  Using five different immigration scenarios to test their impact on the economy as a whole, the authors conclude that doubling current levels of immigration would lead to the best economic outcome. Achieving such a goal is important not only for maintaining global economic dominance, but also for bolstering critical domestic programs like Social Security and maintaining a healthy senior-to-working-age population ratio. This research suggests there may be practical and effective ways to harness immigration to ensure U.S. interests both globally and at home. (Katelin Reger for The Immigrant Learning Center’s Public Education Institute)

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Justin Gest et al (2021, April). Projections Show Increasing Future Immigration Grows the U.S. Competitive Advantage.