Undercount of Undocumented Residents in the 2020 American Community Survey and Estimates and Trends in the Undocumented Population from 2010 to 2020, by US State and Country of Origin

This report estimates the population of undocumented immigrants in 2020, as well as changes in the size of that population since 2010. Estimates are based on data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The report’s two top-level findings are that the undocumented population was undercounted by approximately 1 million, and that the total undocumented population in the last 10 years has continued a decline that began after 2008. While declining overall, the change in population since 2010 varied greatly by nationality, with large declines in the Mexican population and significant increases in Central American and other immigrants. The report provides estimates for the 2010-2020 change in the undocumented population by country of origin for populations that declined by 10,000 or more (14 countries) and for those that increased by 10,000 or more (10 countries). The report also breaks out the change in population for the 15 top destination states. The paper concludes by noting that if large increases in emigration continue — such as that observed in the Mexican population — we will continue to see near zero growth in the undocumented population. (Maurice Belanger, Maurice Belanger Associates)

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