The Future of Immigrant Integration: A California 100 Report on Policies and Future Scenarios

Because California has the largest and most settled immigrant population in the U.S., while at the same time the foreign-born share of the state’s population is declining, policymakers there confront the two-fold task of both encouraging future immigration and integrating immigrants already there. This report on immigrant integration is one of 15 reports on critical issues facing the state prepared as part of the “California 100 Project” – an effort by higher education institutions in California to sketch the outlines of a vibrant and sustainable future over the next 100 years. Among the key takeaways in the report are policy options that improve immigrant integration under four future scenarios that center around two critical dimensions: whether California provides a warm or hostile context of reception, and whether immigration flows to California are high or low. In a context where California provides a warm context of reception, the scenarios range from a future where immigrants of all skills and backgrounds are drawn to an affordable California, where they contribute extensively to, and benefit from, the growing economy to a future where immigrants leave the state, or avoid it altogether, because of unaffordable housing and low-wage jobs. In a context where California has a hostile context of reception, the scenarios range from a future where immigrants continue to come to California seeking job opportunities but are exploited for their labor, to a future where immigrants largely avoid California, the economy stagnates, and nativism spreads to become politically dominant.

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