Overstays Exceeded Illegal Border Crossers after 2010 Because Illegal Entries Dropped to their Lowest Level in Decades

A 2019 presidential memorandum introduced measures aimed at reducing the number of nonimmigrants who “overstay” their authorized period in the United States. However, according to the Center of Migration Studies, the basis on which the Department of Homeland Security estimates overstays is not sound, and the idea that the number of overstays has exceeded the number of unauthorized border crossers because of rising numbers of overstays is incorrect. The article utilizes data from government and other sources to show that the number of overstays has exceeded the number of those who entered illegally at the southern border primarily due to an historic decline in unauthorized entries since 2000. For example, from 2000 to 2016, overstays were in the 200,000 to 400,000 range annually, while illegal entries declined from almost one million in 2000 to approximately 200,000 after 2008. The article highlights that the overall overstay rate did not grow in recent years and that overstays from Mexico in particular but also Korea, Ecuador, Peru, Argentina and Poland declined substantially when comparing the 2000 to 2006 period to the 2010 to 2016 period. The article concludes that there is a need for additional study of the factors related to the phenomenon of overstays, as well as recognition that overstays continue to leave the country at a significant rate. This additional research may be helpful in allowing the Departments of State and Homeland Security to address the problem of overstays in an effective manner. (Jasmina Popaja for The Immigrant Learning Center Public Education Institute)

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