Potential Economic Impacts in Oregon of Implementing Proposed Department of Homeland Security “No Match” Immigration Rules

This study evaluates the impact of implementing a strict “No Match” immigration rule on
Oregon’s economy. The analysis assumes that such a policy would lead to the departure of
Oregon’s estimated 150,000 undocumented immigrants, of which 97,500 are estimated to be part of Oregon’s workforce. The main findings of the study are as follows:

1. In the immediate or short run, the loss of undocumented workers in Oregon which represent 4.3% of the workforce is estimated to cause a decline in employment of 7.7%, or a loss of 173,500 jobs.
2. In the long run when prices, markets and investment decisions have had time to adjust, these impacts would be moderated somewhat.
3. The departure of Oregon’s undocumented workers is not likely to have a significant effect on Oregon’s unemployment rate.
4. The departure of undocumented immigrants from Oregon is estimated to lower state and local tax revenues by between $400 million and $656 million per year.
5. The impacts from implementing the proposed “No Match Rule” are likely to be far greater in some specific labor markets and for some industries than is suggested by these economy-wide estimates. In labor markets where undocumented workers are highly concentrated, the resulting labor shortages, reduced output and upward pressure on wages (and costs) would be significantly larger.

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