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Why Vietnam drought may spike global espresso prices

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 07:09
Gia Lai Province — Vietnam’s coffee growers have been hit hard by the worst drought in nearly a decade this year, and that could mean a morning espresso is about to get more costly.   The country is the world's second biggest coffee producer and the top producer of robusta beans, the variety most commonly found in espressos and instant coffees.   Domestic forecasts for next season's harvest in Vietnam remain grim, with the nation's Mercantile Exchange expecting a 10-16% fall in output due to the extreme heat.   Doan Van Thang is a 39-year-old coffee farmer from the central Gia Lai province.   “The drought dried up this whole area and the surrounding areas, and the water shortage is so severe that compared to last year, the harvest of coffee cherries is very low. We lost a lot of the output. It’s very small, very low this year.”   With the price of coffee beans hitting a record high, farmers are enjoying the extra cash.   They are also trying out new tactics to protect trees in the heatwave, like letting them grow for longer, allowing their roots to access deeper water reserves.   Growers also soften the soil around plants, or cover it with leaves to improve absorption of rainwater and fertilizers.   And a return of rainfall in recent weeks has improved the outlook, boosting confidence among farmers and officials.   But it remains unclear whether the improved weather conditions and new farming practices will help boost output and drive down prices of robusta beans. “We farmers should be happy when the price increases, but due to this drought, we are not very happy because the price increases but the output decreases. So in general, we're happy and we're sad at the same time because the climate changes erratically, and we can't grasp those changes, so we are more sad than happy because the output has decreased much more compared to previous years.”   The United States Department of Agriculture has been far less pessimistic than domestic projections - estimating Vietnam's next harvest to be roughly steady.   Whatever the impact on the harvest, coffee costs for drinkers around the world are likely to rise.   While record wholesale prices have so far had a limited impact on consumer prices, there are signs that might be changing.   Recent data from Eurostat showed coffee inflation up by 1.6% in the European Union in April and 2.5% in robusta-loving Italy.   That's still well below price rises from a year earlier, but it was higher than 1% in the March EU reading - a sign roasters may have started to pass their higher costs on to consumers.

Costly election pledges in France stoke fears of splurges that risk pushing country deeper into debt 

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 07:05
Paris — The promises are appealing — and expensive.    Vying to oust the centrist government of President Emmanuel Macron in an upcoming two-round parliamentary election June 30 and July 7, French political parties of both the far right and far left are vowing to cut gasoline taxes, let workers retire earlier and raise wages.    Their campaign pledges threaten to bust an already-swollen government budget, push up French interest rates and strain France’s relations with the European Union.    “The snap election could well replace Macron’s limping centrist government with one led by parties whose campaigns have abandoned any pretense of fiscal discipline,’’ economist Brigitte Granville of Queen Mary University of London wrote Thursday on the Project Syndicate website.    The turbulence began June 9 when voters handed Macron a defeat at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s hard right National Rally party in EU parliamentary elections. Macron promptly and surprisingly called a snap parliamentary election, convinced that French voters would rally to prevent the first far-right government from taking power in France since the Nazi occupation in World War II.     Macron is aligned against both Le Pen’s National Rally and the New Popular Front, a coalition of far- to center-left parties.    “The center has kind of evaporated,’’ said French economist Nicolas Veron, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The National Rally and the New Popular Front are “radical in very different ways, but they’re both very far from the mainstream.’’    The political extremes are benefiting from widespread voter discontent about painful price rises, squeezed household budgets and other hardships. The French economy is sputtering: The International Monetary Fund expects it to eke out weak growth of 0.7% this year, down from an unimpressive 0.9% in 2023.    The political pledges to put money in voters’ pockets sent economists reaching for calculators. Their answer: The costs could be considerable, at least tens of billions of euros.    News of National Rally’s political ascendance sent France’s CAC 40 stock index tumbling to its worst week in more than two years, although the market calmed somewhat last week. Yields on French government bonds also rose on worries about the potential strain on government finances.    Macron acknowledged that National Rally’s economic pledges “perhaps make people happy,” but claimed they would cost 100 billion euros ($107 billion) annually. And the left’s plans, he charged, are “four times worse in terms of cost.’’    Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president gunning to become France’s prime minister in the election, poo-poos the figure cited by Macron, saying it was “pulled out of the government’s hat.” But Bardella has yet to detail how much his party’s plans would cost or to say how they’d be paid for.    Likewise, the New Popular Front’s 23-page list of campaign pledges doesn’t cost them out or detail how they’d be financed. But the coalition vows to “abolish the privileges of billionaires,” taxing high earners, fortunes and other wealth more heavily. It says it doesn’t intend to add to France’s debts.    Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose France Unbowed party is fielding the largest number of candidates in the coalition, says its platform would require 200 billion euros ($214 billion) in public spending over five years but would generate 230 billion euros ($246 billion) in revenue by stimulating France’s economy.    Bardella vows to slash sales taxes — from 20% to 5.5% — on fuel, electricity and gas, “because I think there are millions of French people in our country who this year can no longer afford to heat themselves or are forced to limit their trips.” The Paris-based Institut Montaigne think tank estimates the cost of that pledge at between 9 billion and 13.6 billion euros ($9.6 billion to $14.5 billion) annually in lost revenue. France’s Finance Ministry estimates an even bigger dent in public coffers: 16.8 billion euros ($18 billion) per year.    On the left, the New Popular Front pledges to freeze prices for essentials — fuel, energy and foodstuffs — as part of a package to help some of France’s poorest. It’s also promising a considerable bump in the minimum wage, raising it by 200 euros ($214) to 1,600 euros ($1,711) net per month. The Institut Montaigne says that those two pledges together could amount to an annual hit of between 12.5 billion euros ($13.4 billion) and 41.5 billion euros ($44.4 billion) for public finances. It also warns that the wage bump could hurt the economy and jobs by making labor costlier.    Both the left and the right pledge to roll back pension reforms that Macron railroaded through parliament last year in the face of massive street protests, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 to help finance the pension system. Doing so risks reopening the politically divisive question of how France can continue to adequately fund pensions as its population ages.    Even before the latest political turbulence, France was already under pressure to do something about its unbalanced government budget. The EU watchdogs have criticized France for running up excessive debts. France already is operating with a higher debt load than European neighbors, with its public debt at an estimated 112% of the size of its economy. That compares with less than 90% for the eurozone overall and just 63% for Germany.    The EU has long insisted that member states keep their annual deficits below 3% of gross domestic product. But those targets have often been ignored, even by Germany and France, the EU’s biggest economies.    France’s deficit last year stood at 5.5%. The EU’s Commission recommended that France and six other countries start an “excessive deficit procedure,’’ beginning a long process that can ultimately force a country to take corrective action.    The upcoming election is for the lower house of France’s parliament, the National Assembly. Macron would remain president until 2027 even if his party loses, which might require an awkward “cohabitation’’ with the National Rally on the far right or New Popular Front on the left.    Macron, who had sought to rein in France’s budget deficits, would have a greatly reduced say over economic policy, though he would still oversee foreign and defense policy. With a leftist or rightwing government calling the shots on economic policy, the country’s budget problems would likely go unresolved, leading to higher yields on French bonds.    The nightmare scenario would be a replay of what happened to the United Kingdom in September 2022 when then-Prime Minister Liz Truss spooked financial markets after proposing a wave of tax cuts without cutting any spending to offset them. Truss’ plan immediately sent the values of the British pound and U.K. government bonds tumbling. The Bank of England ultimately had to step in to stabilize financial markets, while Truss quit after just 45 days in office.    Something similar might happen if a right- or left-wing French government chose to ignore the EU’s budget rules and went on a spending spree that sent French bonds tumbling and interest rates higher. The European Central Bank might then be forced to buy French bonds to drive yields lower and calm markets.    “The ECB would be reluctant to come to the rescue of France itself unless and until any future government put in place a credible plan to bring the deficit down,’’ Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist for Capital Economics, wrote Thursday. “But if yields were spiraling out of control, it could also be forced to step in, just as the Bank of England did.’’ 

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 07:00
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Philippines condemns China's 'illegal use of force' in sea clash

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 06:41
Manila — The Philippines on Monday denounced Beijing's "aggressive and illegal use of force" during last week's South China Sea clash between its navy and the Chinese coast guard. Chinese sailors wielding knives, sticks and an axe foiled a Filipino attempt a week ago to resupply marines stationed on a derelict warship that was deliberately grounded atop the disputed shoal to assert Manila's territorial claims. A Filipino soldier lost a finger in the clash, with Manila also accusing the Chinese coast guard of looting guns and damaging inflatable boats and other equipment. "We are not downplaying the incident. It was an aggressive and illegal use of force," Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro told a news conference. It was the latest and most serious incident in a series of escalating confrontations between Chinese and Philippine ships in recent months as Beijing steps up efforts to push its claims to nearly all of the strategically located waterway. "We will not give up an inch, not even a millimeter of our territory to any foreign power," Teodoro said, restating President Ferdinand Marcos' South China Sea policy. Teodoro said Manila will continue to resupply its warship at Second Thomas Shoal without asking for permission or consent from any other state. Second Thomas Shoal lies about 200 kilometers from Philippine's Palawan island and more than 1,000 kilometers from China's nearest major landmass, Hainan island. Beijing insisted its coast guard behaved in a "professional and restrained" way and blamed Manila for the clash. In previous confrontations Chinese forces have used water cannon and military-grade lasers and collided with Filipino resupply vessels and their escorts. "We see the latest incident in Ayungin (Second Thomas Shoal) not as a misunderstanding or an accident. It is a deliberate act of the Chinese officialdom to prevent us from completing our mission," Teodoro said.  Marcos, addressing the sailors who took part in the resupply mission, said Sunday the country "will not be intimidated or oppressed by anyone" but will "continue to exercise our freedoms and rights in support of our national interest, in accordance with international law."

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 06:00
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Apple's App Store rules breach EU tech rules, EU regulators say

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 05:22
AMSTERDAM — Apple's App Store rules breach EU tech rules because they prevent app developers from steering consumers to alternative offers, EU antitrust regulators said on Monday, a charge that could result in a hefty fine for the iPhone maker. The European Commission, which also acts as the European Union's antitrust and technology regulator, said it had sent its preliminary findings to Apple following an investigation launched in March. The charge against Apple is the first by the Commission under its landmark Digital Markets Act which seeks to rein in the power of Big Tech and ensure a level playing field for smaller rivals. It has until March next year to issue a final decision. EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager cited issues with Apple's new terms. "As they stand, we think that these new terms do not allow app developers to communicate freely with their end users, and to conclude contracts with them," she told a conference. The Commission said under most of the business terms, Apple allows steering only through 'link-outs', meaning that app developers can include a link in their app that redirects the customer to a web page where the customer can conclude a contract. It also criticised the fees charged by Apple for facilitating via the App Store the initial acquisition of a new customer by developers, saying they went beyond what was strictly necessary for such remuneration. Apple said it had made a number of changes in the past several months to comply with the DMA after getting feedback from developers and the Commission. "We are confident our plan complies with the law, and estimate more than 99% of developers would pay the same or less in fees to Apple under the new business terms we created," the company said in an email. The EU executive said it was also opening an investigation into the iPhone maker over its new contractual requirements for third-party app developers and app stores and whether these were necessary and proportionate. DMA breaches can cost companies fines as much as 10% of their global annual turnover.

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 05:00
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India's Modi calls for 'consensus' as parliament opens after polls

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 04:16
NEW DELHI — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to an emboldened opposition for "consensus" Monday, as parliament opened following an election setback that forced him into a coalition government for the first time in a decade. Expected in the first session, which will run until July 3, is a preview of Modi's plans for his third term and the likely formal appointment of Rahul Gandhi as leader of the opposition, a post vacant since 2014. Modi's first two terms in office followed landslide wins for his right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), allowing his government to drive laws through parliament with only cursory debate. But now analysts expect the 73-year-old Modi to moderate his Hindu-nationalist agenda to assuage his coalition partners, focusing more on infrastructure, social welfare and economic reforms. "To run the country, a consensus is of utmost importance," Modi said in a speech shortly before entering parliament, calling on the opposition to play a constructive role. "People expect their representatives to debate and discuss issues which are important to the country... they don't expect disturbances or hindrances in the parliamentary proceedings," he said. "People want substance, not slogans." Modi led lawmakers in taking the oath as his cheering supporters thumped their desks in support, and opposition members waved the constitution in protest. He said he was "proud to serve" India. Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Kiren Rijiju on Monday called for a "peaceful and productive" session, but Indian media said they expected lively debate with a far stronger opposition. "All set to spar," one headline in the Hindustan Times read Monday. "Resurgent opposition set to push government," said the Indian Express front page. Rahul Gandhi, 54, defied analyst expectations to help his Congress party nearly double its parliamentary numbers, its best result since Modi was swept to power a decade ago. Gandhi is the scion of a dynasty that dominated Indian politics for decades and is the son, grandson and great-grandson of former prime ministers, beginning with independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru. Parliamentary regulations require the opposition leader to come from a party that commands at least 10 percent of the lawmakers in the 543-seat lower house. The post has been vacant for 10 years because two dismal election results for Congress — once India's dominant party — left it short of that threshold.

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 04:00
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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 03:00
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Investigation continues into attack on office of Jewish Australian lawmaker

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 02:47
SYDNEY — State and federal police in Australia are coordinating an investigation into an attack by a masked gang on the Melbourne office of a Jewish lawmaker.   Windows were smashed, and fires were lit, and the slogan "Zionism is fascism" was painted in red over a picture of the face of Josh Burns, a member of Australia’s House of Representatives. Investigators in the state of Victoria believe a group of at least five people broke windows, spray-painted anti-Semitic slogans and threw red paint into Burns' office. Police have confirmed the masked group also started two small fires. No one was hurt in Wednesday’s attack, but residents living in apartments above the lawmaker’s office in Melbourne had to be evacuated. No arrests have yet been made. A chorus of politicians and community groups has condemned the vandalism.   The Anti-Defamation Commission, a Jewish campaign group, said it was an "assault on our democracy and our sense of safety."   Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told Australian radio that it was a distressing escalation of tensions that have been inflamed since the start of Israel’s war with Gaza in October.  Burns said the assault on his office was "premeditated, reckless and dangerous" and that he had been targeted in the past by vandals defacing his election posters. He told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. that the abuse has been escalating. "Since the war in the Middle East began on Oct. 7, you know, my staff have been at the receiving end of some pretty horrendous comments and abuse on the phones," he said. "You know, I really do not want to see an escalation in political violence in Australia. We do not want to see a conflict on the other side of the world to be arriving here on our communities and our streets and in our neighborhoods. We want to remain the wonderful and peaceful multicultural Australia, where people are respected and free to live their lives in the Australian way."     Australia has said Israel has the right to defend itself after the Oct.. 7 attack by Hamas militants. Australia advocates a two-state solution in which Israel and a future Palestinian state coexist within internationally recognized borders.    Earlier this month, pro-Palestinian graffiti was daubed on the offices of senior government officials, including Attorney General Mark Dreyfus and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles. Police in Victoria state have been monitoring suspected crimes incited by the conflict in Gaza. Around 200 incidents have been reported, and 60 people have been arrested for alleged criminal damage and offensive behavior. Official data has shown that of the incidents reportedly linked to religious affiliation, 88 related to antisemitic attacks and 16 involved Islamophobia.   A Victorian police spokesperson has said previously that there was "no place in our community for hate crimes of any kind."

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 02:00
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S. Korea battery plant fire kills at least one, 21 ‘unaccounted for’

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 01:29
SEOUL, South Korea — A major fire broke out at a South Korean lithium battery factory on Monday, authorities said, with one person confirmed dead and 21 others unaccounted for as the blaze continued to rage. The lithium battery plant is owned by Aricell, a South Korean primary battery manufacturer. It is located in Hwaseong, just south of the capital Seoul. "We are still unable to go inside and carry out rescue operation. We will carry it out once we get the fire under control," firefighter Kim Jin-young told media. "Twenty-one workers are unaccounted for now. We are planning to track their whereabouts with their contacts provided from the company," Kim added. One person was killed, and another suffered serious burns, he added. Images shared by the Yonhap news agency showed huge plumes of billowing grey smoke rising into the sky above the factory, with orange flames inside the building. Dozens of fire engines were seen outside. South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol issued emergency instructions to authorities, telling them to "mobilize all available personnel and equipment to focus on searching for and rescuing people," his office said. The president also warned authorities that they should "ensure the safety of fire fighters considering the rapid spread of fire". Firefighting and rescue efforts were ongoing, and the cause of the fire was unknown. South Korea is a major producer of batteries, including those used in electric vehicles. Its battery makers supply EV makers around the world, including Tesla.

Climate protesters run onto green, spray powder, delaying finish of PGA Tour event

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 01:21
CROMWELL, Conn. — Six climate protesters stormed the 18th green while the leaders were lining up their putts for the final hole of regulation at the PGA Tour's Travelers Championship on Sunday, spraying smoke and powder and delaying the finish for about five minutes. The protesters waved smoke bombs that left white and red residue on the putting surface before Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim and Akshay Bhatia finished their rounds. Some wore white T-shirts with the words “NO GOLF ON A DEAD PLANET” in black lettering on the front. “I was scared for my life,” Bhatia said. “I didn’t even really know what was happening. ... But thankfully the cops were there and kept us safe, because that’s, you know, that’s just weird stuff.” The PGA Tour issued a statement thanking the Cromwell Police Department “for their quick and decisive action” and noting that there was no damage to the 18th green that affected either the end of regulation or the playoff hole. Scheffler, who recently was arrested during a traffic stop at the PGA Championship, also praised the officers. “From my point of view, they got it taken care of pretty dang fast, and so we were very grateful for that,” said Scheffler, the world's No. 1 player, who beat Kim on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff for his sixth victory of the year. “When something like that happens, you don’t really know what’s happening, so it can kind of rattle you a little bit,” Scheffler said. “That can be a stressful situation, and you would hate for the tournament to end on something weird happening because of a situation like that. I felt like Tom and I both tried to calm each other down so we could give it our best shot there on 18.” Extinction Rebellion, an activist group with a history of disrupting events around the world, claimed responsibility for the protest. In a statement emailed to The Associated Press, the group blamed climate change for an electrical storm that injured two people at a home near the course on Saturday. “This was of course due to increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather conditions,” the statement said. “Golf, more than other events, is heavily reliant on good weather. Golf fans should therefore understand better than most the need for strong, immediate climate action.” After the protesters were tackled by police and taken off, Scheffler left a potential 26-foot clincher from the fringe on the right edge of the cup, then tapped in for par. Kim, who trailed by one stroke heading into the final hole, sank a 10-foot birdie putt to tie Scheffler and force the playoff.

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 01:00
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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 24, 2024 - 00:00
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15 policemen killed by militants in Russia’s Republic of Dagestan

Voice of America’s immigration news - June 23, 2024 - 23:35
Gunmen opened fire at a synagogue, an Orthodox church and a police post in simultaneous attacks across two cities in Russia's North Caucasus region of Dagestan on Sunday, killing at least 15 policemen and injuring 12. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the phase of intense fighting against Hamas was coming to an end. We talk to Professor James Gelvin at UCLA about what Netanyahu is trying to do. The World Worm Charming Championship was held in the UK's Cheshire on Sunday with competitors trying methods including music and fancy dress to try and lure worms out of the ground.

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Voice of America’s immigration news - June 23, 2024 - 23:00
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