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Some analysts say China's plan to boost housing market is 'too little, too late'
Taipei, Taiwan — China's central bank has released a series of economic stimulus plans, including cuts to mortgage interest rates and the required cash reserve ratio — the latter of which will allow commercial banks to inject $140 billion into the market — among other monetary policies aimed at reviving the housing market and stimulating economic growth.
Many Chinese internet users applauded this initiative, but few expressed immediate willingness to buy a house. Analysts said the policies are "too late and too few," since housing prices in China have fallen by half in some areas, leaving people wary of purchasing homes that could further decline in value.
The heads of China's three major financial institutions — including Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China; Li Yunze, the director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration; and Wu Qing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission — on Tuesday unveiled the country’s most powerful economic rescue effort since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pan said that soon, commercial banks will be advised to reduce the interest rate of existing mortgages by about 0.5 percentage points on average, and the minimum down payment ratio for second homes will be reduced from the current 25% to the same 15% as the first home. He said this policy is expected to benefit 50 million households and 150 million people by reducing the nation’s total interest bill by about 150 billion yuan, or $21.3 billion, annually.
Pan said that depending on market conditions, the central bank may consider cutting the required cash reserve on commercial banks by another 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points before the year’s end.
Most Chinese internet users lauded the mortgage rate cuts. But no one answered affirmatively when a user under the name "Mushroom's Second Sister" in Zhejiang asked on Weibo, "Will everyone be more willing to buy a house?"
A Weibo user from Guangdong under the name "Chun Sheng Qi" said flatly, "No.”
Another Weibo user in Zhejiang under the name "Little Lazy Pig Little Lin Lin" said, "Is there a possibility they cut the interest rate to entice you to buy homes, and then they will increase the interest rate after a few years? They have the final say on the interest rate increase and reduction anyway."
A real estate analyst in Taipei told VOA on the condition of anonymity due to the issue's sensitivity that the new policy may not help restore confidence for Chinese home-buyers, who will be less inclined to spend lifetime savings on properties amid China’s sluggish economy, which has been hard-hit in recent years by the pandemic, the U.S.-China trade war and the global economic recession.
She said that while governments around the world have been easing monetary policies to stimulate post-pandemic economic recovery in the past two years, the Chinese government has not taken action, allowing the economy to deteriorate. It is "too late" to introduce the stimulus package, she said.
She added that China’s policymakers are still holding onto an old development model and counting on the property market to drive the economy. But China’s housing market is taking a hit from the country’s declining birthrate. Young people who will inherit a house from elders will not invest in the housing market. Those whose families own no properties may not be able to afford one because of their financial obligations to support elders or children.
Francis Lun, CEO of Geo Securities in Hong Kong, said the policies are "too late and too few" but are better than nothing.
He said that the People's Bank of China should have launched them a year ago, and the scale of 1 trillion yuan is not enough because developer Evergrande alone has $300 billion in debt. Other Chinese real estate companies also sit on billions in debt, so Lun expects China’s central bank to ease the monetary policy again in coming months.
Lun told VOA by phone that to advance structural reform, China should also “replace land sales with property tax revenue as local governments’ source of incomes… Or property prices won’t be stabilized, which will only worsen the local economy.”
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
Sri Lanka’s new president’s faces uphill task in push for change
New Delhi — Catapulted to power on an anti-corruption platform, Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, faces an uphill task in meeting his commitments to clean up the country’s political culture and improving lives for millions mired in poverty since the country’s economic collapse two years ago, say analysts.
With his party having only three lawmakers in the 225-member parliament, Dissanayake has called for fresh elections a year ahead of schedule to choose a new house that could give him wider support for the sweeping reforms that he has promised.
“Dissanayake’s hope would be to secure a comfortable majority in parliament,” according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political analyst in the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, told VOA. “In the past, it was customary for mainstream parties to bribe opposition lawmakers to join them, but his main plank is clean governance, so he will need to win the numbers.”
In a country that rejected mainstream parties in the presidential polls, there is what Uyangoda calls a “very good chance” that he will be able to substantially improve his party’s parliamentary tally. Elections will be held on Nov. 14.
Currently, Dissanayake has the smallest cabinet in the country’s history as he lacks the numbers for a full-fledged cabinet. He has named a new prime minister, Harini Amarasuriya, and two ministers -- in Sri Lanka, only lawmakers can be appointed as ministers.
Winning wider support will be crucial. “Otherwise attempts to deliver on his election promises can be blocked by knee-jerk opposition, due to differences in ideology or political opportunism,” Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told VOA.
Meeting expectations of relief from the punishing austerity measures imposed by a $ 2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund is the first big test Dissanayake faces. He will handle the key finance portfolio.
His pledge to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s deal with the IMF – which he says is not favorable to working class citizens — will not be easy at a time when the country is still heavily debt-ridden and has limited room to expand welfare measures. The package has helped steer the economy back to a nascent growth path, but the government will need to stick to the program’s criteria of keeping the budget deficit in check.
An IMF spokesman in Washington said on Monday that it looked forward to working with President Dissanayake “towards building on the hard-won gains that have helped put Sri Lanka on a path to economic recovery."
While options for providing relief may be limited, analysts said Dissanayake is expected to reduce income taxes for lower income groups and lower taxes on food and medicine.
There is also concern among the business community about the position the Marxist leader, the son of a laborer, will take on free market policies.
The policies of his Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, are aligned with protectionism, according to Gamage. “Their party’s economic growth policy is woven around prioritizing industrialization and domestic manufacturing, supporting local businesses and agriculture.”
However, Dissanayake now heads a coalition, the National People’s Power, an umbrella group of small political parties, youth, civil society and women’s groups and trade unions.
In recent years he has also moderated his party’s hard-left stance and said he believes in an open economy.
“The business class is uneasy because of the Marxist tradition to which he belongs. But my sense is that Dissanayake is a very pragmatic and rational man,” Jehan Perera, who heads the National Peace Council in Colombo, told VOA. “And the coalition the president heads is not a Marxist group.”
Delivering on the clean governance he has promised could also face a pushback.
“Corruption is very deep-seated in the system. It is endemic in society and goes from top to bottom, so rooting it out is very tough,” said Perera. “He will face strong vested interests to rebuild a system that has broken down. But on the positive side, he has the support of the people.”
After taking the oath of office, Dissanayake sounded a note of caution amid the widespread optimism raised by his victory among millions of Sri Lankans, saying he is not a “magician” but an “ordinary citizen.”
“There are things I know and don’t know. My aim is to gather those with the knowledge and skills to help lift this country," he said on Monday.
The coming months will be crucial for a country that is navigating a vastly altered political landscape.
“The management of the economic crisis and management of public expectations will be his biggest challenge, otherwise discontent will grow again,” said analyst Uyangoda. “Past leaders have all belonged to the political elite. This is the first time there is a president who belongs to the working class, so the hopes of the ordinary people are very, very high.”
ADB maintains growth forecast for Asia, more stimulus expected in China
MANILA, Philippines — Developing Asia is on track to grow 5% this year, supported by strong consumption and high demand for tech exports, the Asian Development Bank forecast on Wednesday, and said China was expected to roll out more economic support measures.
In an update to its Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB left most growth projections for economies in the region unchanged from its July report, maintaining its growth outlook for developing Asia at 5.0% this year and 4.9% next year.
It revised down its inflation forecasts for developing Asia, which groups 46 countries in the Asia-Pacific, to 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for next year from previous forecasts of 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively.
The Manila-based lender highlighted some downside risks to its outlook, including rising protectionism, escalating geopolitical tensions, adverse weather conditions, and a deterioration in China's property market.
China, the world's second-largest economy, is battling deflationary pressures, and struggling to lift growth despite a series of policy measures aimed at spurring domestic spending.
On Tuesday, China's central bank announced broad monetary stimulus and property market support measures as authorities look to restore confidence in the economy.
"Whether that will work remains to be seen because a lot of the structural problems in the property sector remain persistent," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said at a briefing.
"It may take more effort and work by their government" to alleviate concerns of consumers and investors, Park said, adding "more proactive government policy would be helpful."
Park also said the ADB was not so concerned about deflation in China as it sees prices recovering.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve kicked off its own easing cycle with a hefty half-percentage-point rate cut.
"With the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut, central banks have more space to ease, and we expect more of them to do so," Park said.
The ADB kept its 2024 growth forecast for China at 4.8%, below the government's official target of about 5%. Growth for 2025 is still forecast at 4.5%.
"The PRC (People's Republic of China) growth forecast is retained despite the prolonged downturn in the property sector, on the assumption that further fiscal and monetary easing will help sustain the economy," Park said.
Global plan for early ditch of coal power hits Indonesia hurdle
CIREBON, Indonesia — A G7-backed push to close coal power plants in emerging markets is facing further delays after a July deadline passed without a deal on the early closure of an Indonesian power plant that would be the first to shut under the initiative.
The push against coal comes under the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with Indonesia, Senegal, South Africa and Vietnam that call for billions of dollars in investments, grants and loans from G7 members, multilateral banks and private lenders to help them transition to low-carbon economies.
Cutting emissions from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is seen as a crucial element of the JETPs if the world is to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.
But a deal on the early shutdown of coal power plants in South Africa remains elusive amid its struggles with rolling blackouts, and hope for proof of concept has turned to Indonesia's 660 megawatt Cirebon-1 plant in West Java province, 220 km east of capital Jakarta.
The legal and financial implications of closing Cirebon-1 are a stumbling block though. Jakarta is worried, too, that costs for replacing it with renewable energy could reach $1.3 billion, mostly in subsidies to cover more expensive renewable power generation, according to the finance ministry.
A new government is taking office in October as well and that could further dent the chance of a deal on Cirebon, said Fabby Tumiwa, a renewables expert and member of the technical team advising Indonesia on its JETP.
"If this is not signed before Oct. 20, I am worried that this matter will be overlooked," Fabby said, citing calls by President-elect Prabowo Subianto for self-sufficiency and energy security that suggest a commitment to coal, which generates two-thirds of Indonesia's electricity.
Prabowo, who takes office on that date, has not commented on Cirebon and has rarely discussed his energy policy, though the retirement of coal power is mentioned in his campaign pledges.
Prabowo's team has not responded to requests for comment.
Under Indonesia's JETP, richer nations have pledged $20 billion to help the Southeast Asian nation with its energy transition, although little of that money has been disbursed.
Legal concerns
Earlier this month, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the outgoing government was trying to close the Cirebon deal as soon as possible, without giving details.
David Elzinga, team leader for the Asian Development Bank's regional Energy Transition Mechanism program that is working on the early shutdown scheme, said his group was seeking a binding deal on Cirebon acceptable to both the outgoing and incoming administrations.
"Indonesia has positioned itself to be a leader ... It's really important now that we get the deal done," Elzinga said.
A deal on Cirebon is crucial for the ADB's regional ETM program as it plans similar deals in countries including Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as for other plants in Indonesia.
To get there, state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and plant operator PT Cirebon Electric Power (CEP) need to reach a new power purchase agreement, which they failed to do by July, CEP Director Joseph Pangalila told Reuters.
The need for stronger legal protections and a clear road map for retiring coal plants was the main problem, PLN said, given that power generation costs could rise by nearly 90%.
PLN directors also fear a deal could expose them to future criminal charges if anti-graft investigators see the transaction as burdening the state with losses, JETP advisor Fabby said.
Rachmat Kaimuddin, deputy minister overseeing power infrastructure, acknowledged this at a recent forum, saying stakeholders were considering the legal repercussions that might arise from any closures.
"If we're not careful, some people can get into trouble because it can create what they call state loss," he said.
In June, a former chief executive of state energy firm Pertamina was sentenced to nine years in jail for signing a long-term gas contract that a corruption court said caused state losses of $114 million.
Others to follow
"We are anxious that it needs to get done, but at the same time what is important is that the first transaction be done in the best possible manner," said Ramesh Subramaniam, ADB director general and head of the bank's sectors group.
A number of private banks are lined up to invest and a series of new deals also could be started once Cirebon is done, with the ADB having already looked at about 30 other plants in Indonesia, he said.
"Although this has taken time, we have learnt a lot ... and our very clear feeling is the next ones to come will be considerably easier."
Cirebon-1 is a fairly new plant that started up in 2012. A deal would mean it stops operations in 2035 instead of 2042.
Despite running cleaner than older plants, emissions from Cirebon and others around Jakarta are often blamed for Indonesia's chronic pollution, and some of the locals in neighboring fishing villages would be happy to see it go.
Fisherman Amin, 64, blamed the plant and coal unloading at its jetty for pollution and a scarcity of fish in nearby waters.
"When they first opened, the water was fine, but it became increasingly murky. The green mussel farms here didn't have any harvest in the past two years," he said.
"From the beginning of construction, I was against it."
US Congresswoman Kamlager-Dove condemns inaction on Sudan conflict
WASHINGTON — Fifty Democratic members of Congress sent a letter to President Joe Biden in late August requesting more humanitarian assistance for Sudan and calling on the U.S. to do more to help end the conflict. Leading the effort is U.S. Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove of California, who told VOA in a recent interview that she is concerned that international partners aren’t doing enough to support humanitarian aid delivery to families affected by the conflict.
“Famine has erupted. Deaths are happening every day, and the warring parties are working together, in my opinion, to prevent the delivery of humanitarian aid,” she told VOA. “It is unconscionable. And it is inhumane.”
Without more aggressive leadership by the U.S., she said, the conflict risks international neglect amid the war Ukraine and an expanding conflict in the Middle East.
The following has been edited for length and clarity.
VOA: Your colleagues have joined you to raise awareness about Sudan. A lot of Sudanese who spoke to us say the world has forgotten them. How do you feel about their sentiments?
U.S. Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove: I am disheartened to hear that, but I understand why they would say it, and that is exactly why I wrote this letter and encouraged my colleagues to sign on. Fifty Democratic members of Congress signed with me, to ask this administration to do more. We want them to raise awareness of this war. Get [U.S.] Secretary [of State Anthony] Blinken out in front. We want to rally our international partners to also take this more seriously and pledge more dollars to help with the support around humanitarian aid delivery. Because if we are not taking the lead on this, then it will signal to the rest of the world that this is not important and of course it is.
VOA: What about international attention? Are you getting that?
Kamlager-Dove: No, we're not getting [international attention.] I have my own suspicions that people just don’t care, or don’t respect the continent of Africa. I think that is wildly ignorant. And we know with forces like China and Russia working to compete against us [the U.S.], and to dismantle democracies, we know that there are other agents and actors playing in this war as well. That is why it is incumbent upon us to take the lead and call for more aid and call for more discussions.
VOA: What about America’s foreign policy and its resources? Where does it go? I mean, I know that the war in Ukraine and Gaza is shifting attention.
Kamlager-Dove: Thankfully, we have an administration that is trying to engage. They finally got a special envoy, [Former U.S. Representative Tom Perriello], to Sudan. You know, a year too late, but he needs to be supported with more resources and more staff. It is very important that Secretary Blinken shows his face more on the continent and reminds folks that this administration cares.
VOA: The U.N. made an appeal for humanitarian assistance. They were projecting $2.7 billion and only 37% of that was received. What should be done to get pledges from donor countries?
Kamlager-Dove: Well, I do think we have to make a concerted effort to ask the international community to pledge more. It is important to give more, but if those resources are thwarted because you have bad actors keeping humanitarian aid from the people and the civilians that need it the most, then it doesn't matter.
VOA: The U.S. government slapped sanctions on both sides in Sudan — the Rapid Support Forces [RSF] and some leaders of the Sudan Armed Forces [SAF]. And it appears like these sanctions are not biting hard because the two belligerent forces have decided not to sign any cease-fire. Are there other instruments of diplomacy in the toolbox that is yet to be used to bring pressure on these two groups?
Kamlager-Dove: Well, it is certainly unfortunate that neither party wants to show up to the negotiating table. It's very hard to come to a resolution when you don't even sit at the table. The other thing that is unfortunate is even if you have sanctions, you know, if you’re still able to buy guns and get the weapons into the country, then obviously you need different kinds of teeth and authority. I think we should be looking at the folks who are supplying the arms to the forces, because that is as important as sanctioning both SAF and RSF. If you don’t stop the flow of arms, what are you really doing?
VOA: When Perriello testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he mentioned that those aiding the war in Sudan must be held accountable, or the U.S.'s efforts will be in vain. How do you respond to that?
Kamlager-Dove: I wholeheartedly agree. We have an obligation to focus on what is happening in the Sudan. But I want to say I'm grateful that he was actually able to show up. You know, we have not had a full committee hearing in the Foreign Affairs Committee on Africa since the beginning of this term.
VOA: The last time we heard about funding [for Sudan] was 2017. And just a month ago, nongovernmental organizations, international aid agencies are saying Darfur is on the verge of famine, there's famine already there. … If you are given an opportunity to speak directly to the people who are making decisions on where aid money should go, what would you tell them?
Kamlager-Dove: I would say the world is watching and the world is waiting. And every moment that you do not sit at the table and find a way, using any quiver that you have in your toolbox every day you wait is a day that someone dies in the Sudan. And this is not something that I am willing to keep in my heart. And this is not something that the United States should let happen. So, get off your tuchus (rear end) and find a way to bring about a cease-fire, and to make sure that humanitarian aid is able to get to the Sudan.
This Q&A originated in VOA’s English to Africa Service.
Climate change doubles chance of floods like those in Central Europe, report says
WARSAW, Poland — Climate change has made downpours like the one that caused devastating floods in central Europe this month twice as likely to occur, a report said on Wednesday, as its scientific authors urged policymakers to act to stop global warming.
The worst flooding to hit central Europe in at least two decades has left 24 people dead, with towns strewn with mud and debris, buildings damaged, bridges collapsed and authorities left with a bill for repairs that runs into billions of dollars.
The report from World Weather Attribution, an international group of scientists that studies the effects of climate change on extreme weather events, found that the four days of rainfall brought by Storm Boris were the heaviest ever recorded in central Europe.
It said that climate change had made such downpours at least twice as likely and 7% heavier.
"Yet again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming," Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute and co-author of the study, said in a statement.
"Until oil, gas and coal are replaced with renewable energy, storms like Boris will unleash even heavier rainfall, driving economy-crippling floods."
The report said that while the combination of weather patterns that caused the storm - including cold air moving over the Alps and very warm air over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas - was unusual, climate change made such storms more intense and more likely.
According to the report, such a storm is expected to occur on average about once every 100 to 300 years in today's climate with 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming from pre-industrial levels.
However, it said that such storms will result in at least 5% more rain and occur about 50% more frequently than now if warming from pre-industrial levels reaches 2 C, which is expected to happen in the 2050s.
The brink of all-out war
Hezbollah and Israel remain on the brink of all-out war. Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets into Israel and Israel says it killed a top Hezbollah commander. Joe Biden has delivered his final address as U.S. president to the U.N. General Assembly. Biden used his wide-ranging address on Tuesday to speak to the need to end the Middle East conflict and highlight U.S. and Western allies’ support for Kyiv after Russia’s invasion. The World Food Program warns that hundreds of thousands of starving Sudanese could die without urgent international assistance. And using dynamite to trim trees in Denmark.
China’s youth unemployment fuels rise in postgraduate studies
Taipei, Taiwan — Youth unemployment in China climbed to nearly 19% in August, its highest level so far this year, according to official data. Analysts say that the higher level of youth unemployment is driving more college graduates to enroll in graduate schools to escape the job search as the world’s second-largest economy struggles.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, or NBS, late last week, the unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds rose from 17.1% in July to 18.8% in August. One big reason for the uptick in joblessness, the NBS said, is that nearly 12 million students graduated from Chinese universities this June, heightening competition in an already tough job market.
Postgraduates overtake graduates
“The job market has shrunk, and at the same time there are still so many graduates. Too many people are idling every day,” said Lin Chan-Hui, an assistant professor of the General Education Center at Feng Chia University in Taiwan. “Another way out is to return to school to study further and temporarily escape the competitive workplace.”
Some Chinese universities say they are seeing more postgraduate students than undergraduates.
According to the state-backed digital publication The Paper, the number of graduate students at Lanzhou University exceeded the total number of undergraduate students for the first time. Lanzhou University is located in the capital of northwestern China’s Gansu Province.
In eastern China’s coastal Zhejiang Province, the Zhejiang University of Technology shows 5,382 new graduate students were admitted this year, beating out the number of new undergraduate students by 40.
The trend was already picking up at more famous Chinese universities last year.
Last December, Beijing’s Tsinghua University said the number of undergraduate freshmen in the previous academic year was 3,760, while the number of master's and doctoral students was 12,069.
Shanghai’s Fudan University in October 2023 reported 15,000 undergraduate students and nearly 37,000 graduate students.
China's Ministry of Education said that last year there were more than 47 million people enrolled in higher education institutes, 1.3 million were graduate students, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
Lei, a higher education consultant in Shenzhen, who due to the sensitivity of the subject only gave his surname, told VOA the trend of higher education is moving toward "college graduates who don’t go to graduate school would immediately become unemployed" amid China's economic slowdown.
"On one hand, studying in graduate school can really help you find a job. On the other hand, it’s also an avoidance mentality,” Lei said.
Wandering masters and doctors
Feng Chia University’s Lin said that having an undergraduate degree is not enough in fields like technological innovation and scientific research, so it is still necessary to get a postgraduate degree in certain fields.
On the other hand, he said, China has too many people getting doctorates and master’s degrees and not enough technical and vocational education so there will be "fierce competition for upper-level work, but no one does the lower-level work." Highly educated young people are not willing to engage in grassroots work, Lin said, so there will be more and more "wandering masters and doctors."
Lin said the geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. has also made studying abroad for a postgraduate degree harder, so more students choose a domestic one instead.
Chinese netizens seem to agree that waiting for the job market to improve is their best hope.
A Hunan netizen on China’s Weibo social media platform under the name "Da Ke Ya Tang" said: "The market will not be able to provide so many jobs in the foreseeable future, so we have to leave the problem to the future."
"If colleges and universities cannot adapt to the country's demand for innovative and pioneering talents and reform the way students are trained, more employment pressure may accumulate in society in a few years," writer Wang Guojin said in a post on Weibo.
COVID students coping?
A PhD student in Shanghai who, due to the sensitivity of the subject, only gave his surname Zeng, told VOA the increase in master's and doctoral students is also because many graduate students went to college during the COVID-19 pandemic and are struggling to adapt. Zeng blames remote learning for their struggles with social interaction and the skills needed to compete in the job market.
"This group of college students obviously lacks some socialization skills, at least in recruitment interviews,” Zeng said. “They can't reach the same level as the previous students.”
Zeng adds that monthly stipends for master's and doctoral students ranges from roughly $143 to $700 and Chinese universities encourage entrepreneurship by providing funds to start small projects through competitions.
“Who wouldn’t want to continue their studies and earn money at the same time?” she asked.
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
Trump pledges sweeping tariffs, says they will keep jobs in US
SAVANNAH, Ga. — Donald Trump on Tuesday pledged to stop U.S. businesses from shipping jobs overseas and to take other countries' jobs and factories by relying heavily on sweeping tariffs to boost auto manufacturing — despite warnings that domestic consumers would pay more and a lack of specifics about how his plans would work.
"I want German car companies to become American car companies. I want them to build their plants here," Trump declared during a speech in Savannah, Georgia.
Trump added that, if elected, he'd put a 100% tariff on every car imported from Mexico and that the only way to avoid those charges would be for an automaker to build the cars in the U.S.
His ideas, if enacted, could cause a huge upheaval in the American auto industry. Many automakers now build smaller, lower-priced vehicles in Mexico — facilitated by a trade agreement Trump negotiated while president — or in other countries because their profit margins are slim. The lower labor costs help the companies make money on those vehicles.
German and other foreign automakers already have extensive manufacturing operations in the U.S., and many now build more vehicles here than they send. BMW, for instance, has an 8 million-square-foot campus in South Carolina that employs 11,000 people building more than 1,500 SUVs per day for the U.S. and 120 export markets. Mercedes and Volkswagen also have large factories here.
If German automakers were to increase production here, they likely would have to take it from factories in Germany, which then would run below their capacity and be less efficient, said Sam Abuelsamid, principal research analyst for Guidehouse Insights.
"It makes no sense," he said.
Trump proposes 'new American industrialism' — without specifics
Trump has proposed using tariffs on imports and other measures to boost American industry — even as economists have cautioned that U.S. consumers would bear the costs of tariffs and other Trump proposals like staging the largest deportation operation in U.S. history.
The former president laid out a broad array of economic proposals during a speech in the key swing state of Georgia, promising to create a special ambassador to help lure foreign manufacturers to the U.S. and further entice them by offering access to federal land.
Additionally, he called for lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but only for companies that produce in the U.S. Harris, the Democratic nominee, wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. It had been 35% when Trump became president in 2017, and he later signed legislation lowering it.
"We're putting America first," Trump said. "This new American industrialism will create millions and millions of jobs."
Trump also suggested wiping away some environmental regulations to boost energy production, saying America has "got the oil, it's got the gas. We have everything. The only thing we don't have is smart people leading our country."
Tuesday's series of economic proposals raised a lot of questions, but the former president hasn't given specific answers on his ideas, which could substantially affect their impact and how much they cost. He has not specified, for example, whether his U.S.-focused corporate tax cuts would apply to companies that assemble their products domestically out of imports.
Trump also suggested he would use a newly created envoy, and his own personal efforts, to recruit foreign companies. But he had a spotty record in the White House of attracting foreign investment. In one infamous case, Trump promised a $10 billion investment by Taiwan-based electronics giant Foxconn in Wisconsin, creating potentially 13,000 new jobs, that the company never delivered.
His calls to offer federal land, meanwhile, might clash with Bureau of Land Management restrictions on foreign entities looking to lease lands. It also wasn't clear whether companies from China would be excluded, given Trump's longtime accusations that China is hurting American business.