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The United States has deepened its cooperation with allies in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years, including Japan and South Korea. But it has also reached out to non-allies, including non-aligned countries of Southeast Asia like Indonesia. VOA's Virginia Gunawan reports. Camera: Ahadian Utama, Hafizh Sahadeva.

HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — Analysts say this week’s visit to Washington by Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang shows advances in cooperation between the two countries, despite rising Vietnamese nationalism that may indicate rising anti-American sentiment in Vietnam. A U.S.-based analyst told VOA on September 12 that Giang’s trip set the groundwork for Hanoi to potentially purchase military cargo planes from the United States this year. Giang met with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Monday. [September 9] Both leaders "reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Vietnam partnership," the Defense Department said in a statement, and noted the one-year anniversary of the elevation of the countries’ ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest tier in Hanoi's diplomatic hierarchy. The leaders also underscored the importance of working together to address the lasting impacts of the U.S.-Vietnam War. Austin announced that the U.S. would budget $65 million over the next five years to complete the decontamination of Bien Hoa airbase of dioxin, bringing the total from department to $215 million. The airbase was the primary storage site for the toxic chemical Agent Orange during the U.S.-Vietnam War and remains an environmental and public health hazard for those nearby. Andrew Wells-Dang, who leads the Vietnam War Legacies and Reconciliation Initiative at the United States Institute of Peace, told VOA by phone on September 5 that diplomatic visits are key to advancing war-remediation efforts, including finding and identifying the remains of missing soldiers. He said that along with the U.S. visit of Deputy Defense Minister Vo Minh Luong in July, visits from authorities provide "opportunity for them to have high level support." Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington and an expert on Southeast Asia, said joint war-reconciliation efforts also set the groundwork for defense cooperation more broadly. "The United States is very pleased with the growth in bilateral defense relations, and it started from very low levels and was built on humanitarian missions," Abuza said during the August 29 call. "We've just continued to build on that," he added. Cargo planes Reuters reported in July that Hanoi was considering purchasing Lockheed Martin C-130 cargo planes from the U.S., according to unnamed sources. The U.S.-based analyst, who asked that his name to be withheld because he has not been cleared to discuss the topic, said the C-130 deal was discussed but not finalized during Giang's visit. The analyst said the deal was held back by the "massive [U.S.] bureaucracy" and because solidifying the purchase during the Washington visit would be "too inflammatory for the Chinese." Ian Storey, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, noted Vietnam's delicate diplomatic balancing act, illustrated by Giang's travel itinerary before the Washington trip. "Vietnam aims to keep its relations with the major powers in balance," he wrote in an email on August 30. "As such, Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang visited Russia and China in August." Storey added that the purchase of C-130 planes would not pose a threat to China in its maritime territorial disputes with Vietnam. "C-130 aircraft would enable the Vietnamese to transport troops and supplies to its occupied atolls in the South China Sea, but these assets are non-strategic and won't shift the dynamics in the South China Sea," he wrote. Nguyen The Phuong, a maritime security expert at the University of New South Wales Canberra, said the C-130 purchase would be a "symbolic move." "Vietnam will try to explore more areas of security and defense cooperation between Vietnam and the United States to upgrade to a higher, more meaningful level," he told VOA on August 30. "The C-130 would be the symbol of that kind of evolving relationship," he said. Phuong said a C-130 is a likely entry point as there is still mistrust between the former foes regarding lethal weapons, and the deal would not rankle China too much. "It could be quite advantageous for Vietnam," he said of a potential C-130 purchase. "Vietnam can improve its relationship with the United States, and at the same time, we could not anger China because Vietnam would just buy non-lethal weapons." Rising nationalism Although there are positive signs to improving Hanoi-Washington relations, there have also been recent instances of anti-Western sentiment that could be an impediment to the countries relations, Phuong said. Fulbright University Vietnam, which has significant backing from the United States, is facing accusations of fomenting a “color revolution,” similar to the popular uprisings in former Soviet republics. On August 21, Vietnam National Defense TV aired a critique of Fulbright for allegedly not displaying the Vietnamese flag at a graduation ceremony and facilitating a color revolution. The report has since been taken down, but Phuong said the Fulbright issue and other recent incidents show tension between Vietnam's conservative and liberal factions. "It's a presentation of a continuous struggle between different factions, one conservative and one liberal," Phuong said. Abuza said that Vietnamese authorities may be attempting to tighten control ahead of the anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. "Next April is the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon," he said. "The Vietnamese want to control that narrative 100%. There are a lot of sensitivities." Along with the Fulbright incident, Phuong pointed to recent uproar around Vietnamese celebrities who were pictured with the South Vietnam flag while traveling to the United States. In addition, a Vietnamese high school student faced cyber bullying and was summoned by police after posting in September that he wanted to leave the country and would "probably never see the [Communist] Party positively again." "There's extreme nationalism in Vietnam at the moment," Phuong said. "It's against Western values."

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TAIPEI, Taiwan — Chinese warplanes tailed a U.S. military aircraft through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, China's military said.  The U.S. aircraft was a P-8A Poseidon patrol and reconnaissance plane, capable of conducting long-range anti-submarine warfare, according to a statement by the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command.  Chinese military forces "organized warplanes to tail and monitor the U.S. aircraft's flight and handled it in accordance with the law," said Li Xi, a senior colonel and spokesperson for the command.  "Theater command troops will remain on constant high alert and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability," he added.  The U.S. Navy didn't immediately comment on the incident.  China claims the self-ruled island of Taiwan as its own territory and bristles at other countries' patrolling the body of water separating it from the island.  On Friday, Germany sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait in its first transit of the disputed waters in more than two decades, drawing criticism from Beijing.  In 2001, a U.S. surveillance plane and a Chinese navy fighter collided mid-air near the Chinese island province of Hainan, resulting in the Chinese pilot's death. The U.S. said its plane was in international airspace and the accident was the result of reckless flying by the Chinese side. 

BANGKOK — Floods and landslides in Myanmar triggered by last week’s Typhoon Yagi and seasonal monsoon rains have claimed at least 226 lives, with 77 people missing, state-run media reported Tuesday. The new figures push the total number of dead in Southeast Asia from the storm past 500. The accounting of casualties has been slow, in part due to communication difficulties with the affected areas. Myanmar is wracked by a civil war that began in 2021 after the army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Independent analysts believe the ruling military controls much less than half of the country’s territory. Typhoon Yagi earlier hit Vietnam, northern Thailand and Laos, killing almost 300 people in Vietnam, 42 in Thailand and four in Laos, according to the ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance. It said 21 people were killed in the Philippines, with another 26 missing. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said on Monday that an estimated 631,000 people may have been affected by flooding across Myanmar. There were already 3.4 million displaced people in Myanmar at the beginning of September, according to the U.N. refugee agency, mostly because of war and unrest in recent years. Heavy rains from the typhoon and the seasonal monsoon brought widespread flash floods to Myanmar, especially the central regions of Mandalay, Magway, Bago and the Ayeyarwaddy Delta; the eastern states Shan, Kayah, Kayin and Mon; and the country’s capital, Naypyitaw. Some flooded areas have started to see water levels recede but others in the Shan and Kayah states remain critical. More than 160,000 houses have been damaged and 438 temporary relief camps have been opened for more than 160,000 flood victims, Myanma Alinn reported. The military government announced that nearly 240,000 people have been displaced. Myanma Alinn said 117 government offices and buildings, 1,040 schools, 386 religious buildings, roads, bridges, power towers, and telecom towers were damaged by the floods in 56 townships. It also said nearly 130,000 animals were killed and more than 259,000 hectares of agricultural land were damaged by the floods. The U.N.’s humanitarian affairs agency said food, drinking water, medicine, clothes, dignity kits, and shelters are urgent needs for the flood victims but alleviation efforts are hampered by blocked roads, damaged bridges and ongoing armed clashes. Vice Senior Gen. Soe Win, the second-ranking member of Myanmar’s ruling military council, said the country had received relief aid from other countries, and some humanitarian assistance from the Association of Southeast Asia, will arrive soon. Soe Win, speaking at a meeting of the National Disaster Management Committee on Monday, said that the extent of flooding in the capital was unprecedented, and cleaning and rehabilitation activities in the flooded areas began Thursday as the water level declined. Myanmar experiences extreme weather during the monsoon virtually every year. In 2008, Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 people around the Irrawaddy River delta. The then-military government was harshly discredited when it delayed acceptance of outside aid. ​

Bamako — Mali said on Tuesday that the capital Bamako was under control after insurgents attacked a gendarmerie training school and other areas before dawn, firing gunshots that reverberated around the city. "Early this morning, a group of terrorists attempted to infiltrate the Faladie gendarmerie school. Mopping-up operations are currently under way," the army said in a statement. It called on residents to avoid the area and await further official communication. The military government said "some sensitive points of the capital" came under attack, including the gendarmerie school. It said the army had pushed back the "terrorists" responsible for the assault and urged civilians to go about their daily business. The gendarmerie school is in Faladie, a district on the southeastern outskirts of Bamako, near the main international airport. Reuters heard the gunfire in the Banankabougou neighborhood near Faladie before sunrise. People heading to the mosque for morning prayers turned back as shots rang out. The gunfire started around 0530 GMT. Some residents said it came from the direction of the airport, while others said it was coming from next to the gendarmerie. A security source said gunfire was heard in several neighborhoods, including areas close to the main airport. Another security source said the airport had been closed. Mali is one of several West African countries fighting an Islamist insurgency that took roots in Mali's arid north in 2012 and has since spread across the Sahel and more recently to the north of coastal countries. Thousands have been killed and millions displaced in the region amid the advance by militants, some of whom have links to al Qaeda and Islamic State, and military efforts to push them back. Governments and fighters have been accused of violence against civilians. Frustration against the authorities for failing to restore security contributed to two coups in Mali — in 2020 and 2021 — followed by two in neighboring Burkina Faso and one in Niger. But jihadist attacks have escalated despite the juntas' promises to improve security, in part by replacing alliances with Western countries with Russian support, including mercenaries from Russia's Wagner private army. Experienced Wagner fighters were killed at the end of July during a battle near the Algerian border between Tuareg rebels and the Malian army, which suffered heavy losses and was ambushed by jihadists as it withdrew. It is, however, rare for insurgents to strike inside the capital. In 2015, armed men launched a dawn raid on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako that killed 20 people.

Brussels — Teresa Ribera will have to square up to Big Tech, banks and airlines if confirmed as Europe's new antitrust chief, while juggling calls for looser rules to help create EU champions. Nominated Tuesday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for the high-profile antitrust post, Ribera has been Spain's minister for ecological transition since 2018. The 55-year-old Spanish socialist, one of Europe's most ambitious policymakers on climate change, will have to secure European Parliament approval before taking up her post. As competition commissioner, she will be able to approve or veto multi-billion euro mergers or slap hefty fines on companies seeking to bolster their market power by throttling smaller rivals or illegally teaming up to fix prices. One of her biggest challenges will be to ensure that Amazon, Apple, Alphabet's Google, Microsoft and Meta comply with landmark rules aimed at reining in their power and giving consumers more choice. Apple, Google and Meta are firmly in outgoing EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager's crosshairs for falling short of complying with the Digital Markets Act. Another challenge will be how to deal with the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence amid concerns about Big Tech leveraging its existing dominance. Ribera may ramp up a crackdown on non-EU state subsidies begun by Vestager aimed at preventing foreign companies from acquiring EU businesses or taking part in EU public tenders with unfair state support. Recent rulings from Europe's highest court, which backed the Commission's $14.5 billion tax order to Apple, and its $2.7 billion antitrust fine against Google, could embolden Ribera to take a tough line against antitrust violations. That would mean she would be in no hurry to ease up on antitrust rules, despite Mario Draghi's call to boost EU industrial champions so that they are able to compete with U.S. and Chinese competitors. Ribera was also named on Tuesday as executive vice president of a clean, just and competitive energy transition, tasked with ensuring that Europe achieves its green goals. Her credentials include negotiating deals last year among EU countries on emissions limits for trucks and a contentious upgrade of EU power market rules.  

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PARIS — Jailed Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi on Monday urged the international community to act to end the oppression of women in Iran, two years after the start of a women-led protest movement. "I call on international institutions and people around the world... to take active action," she said in a letter written in Tehran's Evin prison on Saturday, and published by her foundation on Monday. "I urge the United Nations to end its silence and inaction in the face of the devastating oppression and discrimination by theocratic and authoritarian governments against women by criminalizing gender apartheid," she said. The "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests were sparked by the death in custody of a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd called Mahsa Amini on September 16, 2022, after she was arrested for allegedly breaching the country's strict dress code for her gender. Mohammadi — who has campaigned against the compulsory wearing of the headscarf for women and the death penalty in Iran — has been in Tehran's Evin prison since November 2021. She has spent much of the past decade in and out of jail.  On Sunday she was one of 34 women in the Evin prison to stage a 24-hour symbolic hunger strike on the second anniversary of the protest movement "in solidarity with the protesting people of Iran, against the government's oppressive policies," her foundation said. Mohammadi's children received the Nobel Peace Prize on her behalf in 2023 while she was incarcerated. Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, women in Iran have to cover their hair and neck in public. The "Woman, Life, Freedom" demonstrations were crushed by the authorities, with rights group Amnesty International saying security forces used assault rifles and shotguns in the crackdown. Human rights groups say at least 551 people were killed. Thousands more were arrested, according to the United Nations. But Mohammadi was defiant. "Despite the challenging road ahead, we all know that nothing is as it was before," she wrote. "The people feel the greatest change in their beliefs, lives, and society. A change that, while it has not yet toppled the Islamic Republic regime, has shaken the foundations of religious tyranny."

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CARACAS/GENEVA — President Nicolas Maduro's government escalated repressive tactics to crush peaceful protests and keep power after Venezuela's disputed election in July, a U.N. report said on Tuesday. Electoral authorities awarded the vote to Maduro, without showing all tallies, but the opposition said its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won by a landslide with counts proving that. More than two dozen people died in protests with 2,400 arrested. The U.N. fact-finding mission, which interviewed several hundred people remotely or in third countries as it is denied access to Venezuela, said authorities tried to dismantle the opposition, block independent information, and stop protests. "We are facing a systematic, coordinated and deliberate repression by the Venezuelan government, which responds by a conscious plan to silence any form of dissent," mission head Marta Valinas told journalists in Geneva. "The government has instrumentalized the entire state apparatus, including especially the justice system, with a view to silencing any difference of opinion that opposes its scheme and to staying in power at any price." According to the mission, 24 out of 25 deaths were caused by gunshot wounds, mostly to the neck. Arrests under the feared "knock knock" operation - referring to the unexpected arrival at houses of government critics - often affected ordinary citizens in poor neighborhoods. The Maduro government has blamed right-wing, foreign-instigated "extremists" and "fascists" for the latest bout of violence in the South American oil producer that has seen waves of protests crushed during his more than decade-long rule. There was no immediate statement from Venezuelan authorities in response to the U.N. mission, which said it had tried to contact them for its investigation to no avail. The U.N. report said repression around the election was orchestrated from Maduro down and marked a new milestone in the deterioration of rule of law in Venezuela. "The main public authorities abandoned all semblance of independence and openly deferred to the executive," it said, noting that a climate of fear had been created. Allegations of disappearances, torture and other cruel treatment have increased since 2019, the report said. Opposition candidate Gonzalez has gone to Spain and requested asylum after a warrant was issued for his arrest in Venezuela. U.N.-mandated investigations do not have legally binding powers but the abuses they document are sometimes used in international courts.

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LONDON — Less than two months ahead of the COP29 United Nations Climate Summit, the Azerbaijani leadership laid out its plans on Tuesday for what it hoped to achieve, as countries continue to wrestle with how to raise ambitions for a new financing target. The main task for the November summit is for countries to agree on a new annual target for funding that wealthy countries will pay to help poorer nations cope with climate change. Many developing countries say they cannot upgrade their targets to cut emissions faster without first receiving more financial support to invest in doing this. With countries remaining far from agreement on the financing goal, the COP29 presidency this week outlined more than a dozen side initiatives that could raise ambitions, but do not require party negotiation and building consensus which can hamper progress. These take the form of new funds, pledges, and declarations that national governments can adopt. Notably, this includes a fund with voluntary contributions from fossil fuel producing countries and companies for the public and private sectors working on climate issues, as well as grants that can be doled out to assist with climate-fueled natural disasters in developing countries. Such side agendas use "the convening power of COP and the hosts’ respective national capabilities to form coalitions and drive progress," said Mukhtar Babayev, who holds the rotating COP presidency, in a letter to all parties and stakeholders. Over 120 countries pledged at last year's COP28 summit in Dubai, for example, to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The COP29 presidency also hopes to build support around a pledge to increase global energy storage capacity six times above 2022 levels, reaching 1,500 gigawatts by 2030. This would include a commitment to scale up investments in energy grids, adding or refurbishing more than 80 million km by 2040. Babayev, who is Azerbaijan's minister of ecology and natural resources, said the agenda would "help to enhance ambition by bringing stakeholders together around common principles and goals." "We hope to address some of the most pressing issues while also highlighting remaining priorities," he said. Another declaration would see countries and companies create a global market for clean hydrogen, addressing regulatory, technological, financing and standardization barriers. COP29 leaders have also appealed for a "COP Truce" that would highlight the importance of peace and climate action. Despite countries' existing climate commitments, carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels hit a record high last year, and the world just registered its hottest summer on record as temperatures climb.

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PARIS — When French prosecutors took aim at Telegram boss Pavel Durov, they had a trump card to wield - a tough new law with no international equivalent that criminalizes tech titans whose platforms allow illegal products or activities. The so-called LOPMI law, enacted in January 2023, has placed France at the forefront of a group of nations taking a sterner stance on crime-ridden websites. But the law is so recent that prosecutors have yet to secure a conviction. With the law still untested in court, France's pioneering push to prosecute figures like Durov could backfire if its judges balk at penalizing tech bosses for alleged criminality on their platforms. A French judge placed Durov under formal investigation last month, charging him with various crimes, including the 2023 offence: "Complicity in the administration of an online platform to allow an illicit transaction, in an organized gang," which carries a maximum 10-year sentence and a $556,300 fine. Being under formal investigation does not imply guilt or necessarily lead to trial, but indicates judges think there's enough evidence to proceed with the probe. Investigations can last years before being sent to trial or dropped. Durov, out on bail, denies Telegram was an "anarchic paradise." Telegram has said it "abides by EU laws," and that it's "absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform." In a radio interview last week, Paris Prosecutor Laure Beccuau hailed the 2023 law as a powerful tool for battling organized crime groups who are increasingly operating online. The law appears to be unique. Eight lawyers and academics told Reuters they were unaware of any other country with a similar statute. "There is no crime in U.S. law directly analogous to that and none that I'm aware of in the Western world," said Adam Hickey, a former U.S. deputy assistant attorney general who established the Justice Department's (DOJ) national security cyber program. Hickey, now at U.S. law firm Mayer Brown, said U.S. prosecutors could charge a tech boss as a "co-conspirator or an aider and abettor of the crimes committed by users" but only if there was evidence the "operator intends that its users engage in, and himself facilitates, criminal activities." He cited the 2015 conviction of Ross Ulbricht, whose Silk Road website hosted drug sales. U.S. prosecutors argued Ulbricht "deliberately operated Silk Road as an online criminal marketplace ... outside the reach of law enforcement," according to the DOJ. Ulbricht got a life sentence. Timothy Howard, a former U.S. federal prosecutor who put Ulbricht behind bars, was "skeptical" Durov could be convicted in the United States without proof he knew about the crimes on Telegram, and actively facilitated them - especially given Telegram's vast, mainly law-abiding user base. "Coming from my experience of the U.S. legal system," he said, the French law appears "an aggressive theory." Michel Séjean, a French professor of cyber law, said the toughened legislation in France came after authorities grew exasperated with companies like Telegram. "It's not a nuclear weapon," he said. "It's a weapon to prevent you from being impotent when faced with platforms that don't cooperate." Tougher laws The 2023 law traces its origins to a 2020 French interior ministry white paper, which called for major investment in technology to tackle growing cyber threats. It was followed by a similar law in November 2023, which included a measure for the real-time geolocation of people suspected of serious crimes by remotely activating their devices. A proposal to turn on their devices' cameras and mouthpieces so that investigators could watch or listen in was shot down by France's Constitutional Council. These new laws have given France some of the world's toughest tools for tackling cybercrime, with the proof being the arrest of Durov on French soil, said Sadry Porlon, a French lawyer specialized in communication technology law. Tom Holt, a cybercrime professor at Michigan State University, said LOPMI "is a potentially powerful and effective tool if used properly," particularly in probes into child sexual abuse images, credit card trafficking and distributed denial of service attacks, which target businesses or governments. Armed with fresh legislative powers, the ambitious J3 cybercrime unit at the Paris prosecutor's office, which is overseeing the Durov probe, is now involved in some of France's most high-profile cases. In June, the J3 unit shut down Coco, an anonymized chat forum cited in over 23,000 legal proceedings since 2021 for crimes including prostitution, rape and homicide. Coco played a central role in a current trial that has shocked France. Dominique Pelicot, 71, is accused of recruiting dozens of men on Coco to rape his wife, whom he had knocked out with drugs. Pelicot, who is expected to testify this week, has admitted his guilt, while 50 other men are on trial for rape. Coco's owner, Isaac Steidel, is suspected of a similar crime as Durov: "Provision of an online platform to allow an illicit transaction by an organized gang." Steidel's lawyer, Julien Zanatta, declined to comment.

TEL AVIV — Ahead of Russia hosting the 2024 BRICS Summit from Oct. 22-24, Turkey’s application to join the group of major emerging economies is coming under scrutiny.  The BRIC, or Brazil, Russia, India and China, platform was initiated by Russia in 2009 as an informal club to provide members with a conduit for challenging the world order dominated by the U.S. and its Western allies. South Africa joined in 2010, making them BRICS. While analysts say Turkey’s membership bid is more about playing both sides than challenging its Western allies, some also voice concerns that Ankara is moving away from the West.  “Turkey’s BRICS bid is one more example of the country’s drift away from the Transatlantic community,” Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe, told VOA Mandarin. Turkey’s formal application last week for membership in the BRICS bloc of emerging economies confirmed speculation of the plan after the Kremlin in June welcomed “Turkey’s interest in the work of BRICS” and promised to support Ankara’s aspirations to join it. Ankara’s move marks the first time a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a candidate to join the European Union has applied to join a group dominated by Russia and China.  NATO is a political and military alliance of 32 countries created by the U.S. for collective security against the former Soviet Union. The body also serves as a medium for member-state consultation, cooperation, dispute resolution and crisis management.  BRICS aims to challenge the political and economic dominance of mainly Western, developed nations. Critics say it struggles to accomplish much and is uniting authoritarian and corrupt governments that seek to silence opposition. In January 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates were formally added to the group. “There’s a process of enlarging BRICS that China and Russia are engaged in,” Gallia Lindenstrauss, a fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies Turkey Policy Research, told VOA Mandarin. “This bid announcement is directly tied to the S-400 sales to Turkey, and it comes as a prelude to the upcoming October BRICS meeting in Russia.” In 2020, the Trump administration slapped sanctions on Turkey for a $2.5 billion acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, which is said to pose a risk to the NATO alliance and to U.S. F-35 fighter jets. Despite the Russian missile deal, Turkey still has clear differences with the BRICS members and summit host concerning Moscow’s war on Ukraine, a key NATO concern. While most BRICS members have taken a neutral or Russia-leaning stance on Moscow’s invasion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week expressed “unwavering” support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and said Russia must return annexed Crimea to Kyiv, prompting a mild rebuke from Moscow. “Turkey is going through an anti-Western mood at the moment,” Aydintasbas says. “This is made worse by events in Gaza.”  Turkey, whose citizens are mostly Muslims, has been an outspoken critic of U.S. ally Israel’s fight against Hamas in Gaza. The conflict began after Hamas’ attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 and took as hostages 250 people. Israel’s counteroffensive in Gaza has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to the territory's health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count.  Analysts say Turkey’s impatience over stalled negotiations to join the EU has also fueled its desire to form closer relations with BRICS. Ankara’s EU bid launched in 2005 has been delayed by concerns about its crackdown on Turkish opposition. Muhdan Saglam, Ankara-based Russian Energy and Russia-Turkey relations commentator, told VOA Mandarin that Turkey’s BRICS bid is a way to show it has different faces — one for the East and another facing West. “Erdogan is using this to show the West Turkey has alternatives,” Saglam explains. “But BRICS is not an alternative and Western authorities know that. It is important, though, because not one NATO member has applied for membership in a different organization. In this case, the political impact may be more important than economic or defense implications.” But Saglam says the BRICS bid is also a means for facilitating deals with business partners like China. BRICS member countries make up about 45% of the world’s population and 28% of the global economy.  BRICS countries produce more than a third of the world’s crude oil. If Saudi Arabia joins the group, which it has indicated it may, BRICS nations would produce some 43% of global crude oil.  But analysts note while Turkey’s trade with China has grown, to more than $48 billion in 2023, the vast majority were imports from China while Ankara has a more balanced trade with its top partner — the European Union. “Turkey may ultimately be in BRICS,” Lindenstrauss said. “But there’s no practical serious meaning here in terms of trade partners and it doesn’t change export/import trade factors.” In June, Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, during a talk at London’s Chatham House think tank, referred to BRICS as “a dialogue platform” versus a formal economic bloc like the EU.  “The EU remains our core partner in terms of trade investments, tourism flows ... so we remain focused (on the EU), but that doesn’t mean we do not look at alternatives if they present value,” he told the forum. Aydintasbas, of the Brookings Institution, said Turkey’s bid to join BRICS should not be dismissed.  “BRICS membership may not mean much in practical terms and Turkey is still keen to retain its NATO membership. But it is gradually, inch-by-inch, drifting from the West — and that requires greater strategic thinking on the part of U.S. and other NATO allies, given Turkey’s regional heft and geographic location. Is this an outcome we want?” The presidents of China and Iran have already confirmed they will attend the October summit in Russia. Although Russian and Chinse state media report the Turkish president has said he will attend the summit, Erdogan’s office has to make an official confirmation.

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